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Midterm Outlook

March 10, 2026 

The midterm election outlook is shifting rapidly with retirements, updated congressional maps, and primary losses.

House of Representatives: These retirement announcements have come as President Donald Trump and Republican leadership try to preserve a narrow House majority.

• To date, 56 US House members are retiring instead of running for their current seat. 
• 35 Republicans have announced their retirement, compared to 21 Democrats. In recent years, more members of the party in power have headed for the exits.
• This list includes those who lost their primary election, or are running for higher office which include the Senate, Governorship, and offices of Attorney General and County Judge.
• The president’s party usually loses congressional seats in midterm elections.

Recent Notable Retirements

• Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA-48) announced last week that he will be retiring due to the redrawn maps in California. His seat became a genuine toss-up after California redrew its districts. Kamala Harris would have won the new district over Donald Trump by three points in 2024. It previously was a safe Republican seat.
• Rep. Burgess Owens (R-UT-4) also announced last week that he will be retiring. 
  • Utah’s congressional map has gone through many different versions for this election year due to a battle at the state level between Republicans and Democrats. 
  • A judge recently declared that it was too late to change the map, leaving a safe Democratic seat in the Salt Lake City area. 
  • Owens decided to retire instead of running in this new Democratic leaning seat or run in a nearby district against another member of Congress in the primary. 
• Rep. Tony Gonzalez (R-TX-23) announced he will no longer run for re-election. 
  • Gonzalez was serving his third term, but following a 2026 primary runoff challenge and a House Ethics Committee investigation into an affair with a former staffer, he dropped his re-election bid last week. 
  • Without Gonzalez in the race, Brandon Herrera will likely be the GOP’s nominee, giving Democrats a shot at flipping this traditionally safe red district.

Texas Senate Race

• On the Democratic side, State Senator James Talarico won the nomination to be his party’s nominee, beating Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett (D-TX-30) by a margin of 52-48%, avoiding a runoff. 
• While the Republican side is a bit more messy, incumbent Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) has been forced into a runoff election with current Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. 
• Cornyn garnered 42% of the vote, while Paxton was just shy of 41%. As neither candidate breached the 50% mark, there will be a runoff election on May 26. President Trump has been publicly musing about endorsing a candidate prior to the runoff.

Why it matters: The messy primary on the Republican side forces the candidates to spend time and money attacking each other over the next two months instead of focusing on the general election. 

Democrats have dubbed this the dream scenario for their general election prospects. A perfect storm of negative approval ratings on President Trump and competitive elections in stronghold GOP states could give Democrats a slim but real chance at controlling both chambers of Congress next year.

• Talarico has been widely viewed as Democrats best chance to take the seat, and infighting on the GOP side only helps them make their case. 
• Putting Texas in play forces national Republicans to spend more money protecting their eventual nominee this fall.

Montana Senate Race 

• Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) announced his surprise decision to retire last week just hours before the filing deadline was about to pass. 
• He quickly endorsed U.S. Attorney for the District of Montana Kurt Alme, who filed to run for Daines’ Senate seat as a Republican just minutes before the deadline closed on Tuesday evening. 
• This move raised eyebrows across Capitol Hill as Sen. Daines in effect froze the primary field for his handpicked successor. 
• Another member of Congress, Rep. Marie Glusenkamp-Perez (D-WA-3) publicly stated her frustration with the move following his retirement announcement.

One of the reasons Daines cited for his retirement announcement was the desire to avoid an expensive race by keeping big Democratic names out of the mix including former Democratic Senator Tester and former Democratic Governors Brian Schweitzer and Steve Bullock. 

“A second midterm for a president, you have natural political headwinds. And my goal here was to try to make this race as least expensive as possible, given there’s a lot of expensive races on the map,” Daines said in an interview. “This was all about preventing this race from escalating into another $200-300 million race.” 

Source: Semafor

Why it matters: The general election this fall in Montana is not expected to be competitive as the state has trended more red, with current Senator Tim Sheehy (R-MT) winning his election by seven percentage points in 2024. 

Contact James Montfort (jmontfort@crefc.org) with any questions.

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Capital Markets Update Week of 3/4

March 4, 2025

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) shutdown is nearing the one month mark with little progress made on re-opening the department.

Why it matters: The DHS funding lapse began February 14 amid Democratic pushback on Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) funding. The bill is the last remaining piece of FY 2026 government appropriations.

On Sunday, Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) stated that he would like to fund some parts of DHS, but not all.

"Let’s just pass those funding bills. Let’s confine the ICE and CBP reform discussion just to those two agencies and fund the others. Thus far, Republicans have blocked those efforts. We want to fund TSA, FEMA, Coast Guard and CISA,” Kaine said during an appearance on CBS’s “Face the Nation.”

Source: The Hill

Yes, but: The partial funding of the department is likely to be a non-starter. A funding bill of this nature failed in the Senate just last week.

Over the past three weeks, Democratic leadership and the White House have traded reform demands back and forth but have yet to find a compromise. It remains to be seen if a deal to fund everything excluding ICE and CBP is a viable path forward.

• Amid the shutdown of the Department, the Secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem was fired by President Trump on March 5. 
• The final straw was reportedly the spending of $220 million on an ad campaign that prominently featured Sec. Noem. 
• Noem, stated in her testimony to the Senate Judiciary Committee that this ad campaign was approved by President Trump himself. Following her testimony, Trump denied approving the campaign and announced shortly thereafter that Noem would no longer lead the department.
• Trump then announced that Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) will take over the department effective March 31. A change in leadership could help bolster the agencies credibility, but a deal on funding the department still seems distant.

The bottom line: Essential DHS employees continue working without pay, while key programs are seeing disruption. We will continue to track developments and share updates.

Contact James Montfort (jmontfort@crefc.org) with any questions.

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CREFC Meets with SEC Regarding Its ABS Concept Release

March 10, 2026

Last week, a group of CREFC staff and members met with the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) Office of Structured Finance (OSF) to discuss our response to the SEC’s Concept Release on Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Disclosures and Enhancements to Asset-Backed Securities Registration.

We noted that securitization remains critical to liquidity and borrower access to capital, but that registered CMBS issuance has declined sharply over the past decade, from 65% of private-label market (2014) to 29% (2024).

Our members shared that regulatory costs and duplicative requirements discourage registration and that we support reforms that lower costs while preserving investor protection:

• Reduce unnecessary or duplicative regulatory burdens;
• Preserve timely, accurate, and decision-useful investor disclosures; and
• Align regulation with how CMBS markets function in practice.

Our specific recommendations focused largely on reporting and disclosure requirements applicable to registered conduit CMBS:

• Restore automatic suspension of Section 15(d) reporting obligations for registered CMBS held of record by less than three hundred persons.
• Change the cadence of significant obligor financial disclosures to reduce undue reporting burden.
• Conform the reporting requirements on Schedule AL to existing disclosure requirements in Item 1111.

We also suggested:

• Reducing the waiting period under Rule 15Ga-2 relating to the filing of third-party due diligence reports prior to pricing.
• Revising Rule 17g-5 to remove the requirement that information provided to an NRSRO rating an Exchange Act ABS be posted to a website. (On November 12, we submitted to the SEC a 17g-5 Petition for Rulemaking.) 

CREFC appreciated the opportunity to engage with the SEC’s OSF on its work to rationalize the ABS regulatory framework and better align it with today’s markets. 

• We look forward to providing more information in response to the OSF’s questions and responding to the forthcoming SEC proposal that will reflect the comments received on its Concept Release.

Contact Sairah Burki (sburki@crefc.org) with questions. 

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Economy, the Fed, and Rates…

March 10, 2026

Economic Data & Labor Market

• February payrolls shocked: −92,000 jobs vs. +55,000 consensus. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Prior months were revised lower by a combined 69,000—turning December into a loss (−17,000 from an initial +48,000 estimate) and pulling the three-month average to near-zero (+6,000/month). Private-sector payrolls fell 86,000. The labor market has now shed jobs in five of the past nine months. Bloomberg Economics’ Alt-Data Labor Market Index, built specifically because of BLS data-quality concerns, reads ~0.3 standard deviations below the historical average—still weak but improved from ~0.7 SD below at its September trough. Stripping out strikes, weather, and BLS model effects, the underlying pace is roughly 60,000–70,000 jobs per month.
  
• Weakness was broad-based, and the labor market’s sole engine stalled. Healthcare and social assistance—the only sector reliably adding jobs for two years—shed 19,000 positions, dragged down by a 31,000-worker Kaiser Permanente strike. Even stripping out the strike, the sector’s reversal from +116,000 in January underscores fragility. Leisure and hospitality cut 27,000, construction lost 11,000, manufacturing shed 12,000, and the information sector extended a multi-year slide (>300,000 jobs lost since late 2022). The unemployment rate for high-school-only workers 25+ rose to 4.8%; bachelor’s-degree holders held at 3.0%. Among men 22–27, college graduates now face roughly the same unemployment rate as non-graduates—a sign the degree premium has collapsed.
  
• Wages solid; productivity absorbing the pressure. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% m/m, 3.8% y/y. But unit labor costs were up just 1.3% in 2025, thanks to 2.8% productivity growth—double the pre-pandemic pace. Wages remain firm on the surface, but productivity is keeping labor-cost inflation benign. This is the channel that connects to Barclays’ supercore thesis below.
  
• ISM Services surged to 56.1—the strongest since mid-2022. New orders hit a one-year high (58.6), backlogs jumped an unprecedented 11.9 points, and fourteen of seventeen industries expanded. Notably, services prices-paid fell to a near one-year low—a sharp contrast with ISM manufacturing, where input prices soared to their fastest pace since 2022. The divergence—robust services alongside collapsing payrolls—suggests the headline NFP number overstates underlying weakness, though the breadth of losses argues against dismissing it entirely.

Federal Reserve Policy & the Growth/Inflation Squeeze

• The Fed’s dual-mandate collision is no longer hypothetical. A weak payroll report would normally pull cuts forward. Instead, the Iran shock prevented a clean dovish repricing. Officials hold at 3.50%–3.75% and are expected to stand pat at the March 17–18 meeting. Swaps price ~35–50 bps of total 2026 easing, down from ~60 bps a week earlier, with first-cut timing oscillating between July and September. Bloomberg Economics maintains a 100-bps-of-cuts call. Governor Miran continues to argue for aggressive easing; Cleveland Fed’s Hammack won’t rule out hikes if inflation stalls. Goolsbee compared the risk of repeated supply shocks eroding expectations to a sunburn: once you see the damage, you regret not having applied protection. Watch: Powell’s term as chair ends mid-May, making the April 28–29 FOMC his last meeting—and a live possibility for a cut if March payrolls are also negative.
• The key question is duration, not direction. A short-lived oil shock is something the Fed can look through; persistent $100+ oil risks lifting headline PCE at or above 3.0% through 2026 (Morgan Stanley estimates a sustained 10% oil increase adds 30–40 bps to y/y inflation). JPMorgan estimates $90 oil would trim GDP by 0.6 pp—but September futures traded at $73, implying the market expects the shock to fade. Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari explicitly warned against “transitory 2.0.”
• Barclays’ AI-disinflation thesis: a medium-term wildcard. If core goods drift to ~0% and rent inflation runs below its pre-COVID norm, supercore must run hotter just to keep core CPI near 2%. But wage growth has already decelerated to pre-COVID pace—and AI-driven labor substitution could push it lower still. Barclays argues that markets should price in a negative core inflation risk premium beyond the near term, not a positive one. The note itself was largely drafted by AI, which Barclays cited as evidence of the thesis in action.

Treasury Yields & Bond Markets

• Worst weekly rout since “liberation day.” The 10-year finished at 4.14%, up 20 bps w/w. The 30-year rose 15 bps to 4.76%; the 2-year climbed 19 bps to 3.56%. The bond market’s muted reaction to the payroll miss—yields barely moved on the data—signals inflation anxiety is dominating growth concerns. 
• Real yields, not break-evens, drove the move. Ten-year real yields rose ~14 bps on the week versus only ~6 bps for breakeven inflation. That distinction matters: the market was not just pricing near-term gasoline inflation—it was repricing the real-rate path, term premium, and the Fed’s room to ease. In plain terms, bonds sold off because the macro setup got uglier, not simply because oil went up.
• Safe havens failed. Treasuries, gold, yen, and Swiss franc all declined while the dollar rallied ~1.4%. Stocks and bonds fell together for the worst combined week since April. Barclays found the stress gap between the most and least volatile assets has never been this wide in the data back to 2010. The U.S. fared better than energy importers: UK gilts posted their worst week since the 2022 pension crisis (+39 bps), and short-term German yields jumped 30 bps.
• Fiscal trajectory darkens. CBO projects federal debt surpassing $56T by 2036 (120% of GDP), and this week added $2T to its decade-long deficit forecast. The war’s first 100 hours cost an estimated $3.7B (CSIS). Hormats (Barron’s) warned the erosion of international trust could make the next financial crisis far harder to manage cooperatively than 2008.

Dollar, Commodities & Market Dynamics

• Dollar up, gold down. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose ~1.4% w/w, reflecting the U.S.’s net-energy-producer advantage and risk-off positioning—inverting the “liberation day” pattern when the dollar fell alongside everything else. Gold fell 2.3% to $5,159/oz (worst week since January 30); silver dropped 9.3%. The stronger dollar and higher rate expectations overwhelmed safe-haven demand. 
• Oil posted its largest weekly gain on record. WTI surged 36% to $91/bbl; Brent rose 27% to $93. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut—fewer than 50 ships transited (vs. hundreds normally), ~500 tankers stuck nearby. Kuwait is cutting production due to a lack of storage; Iraq has reduced output; Qatar has stopped producing LNG. Container bookings into Gulf ports plunged 81% in two days; port congestion at India’s Nhava Sheva surged from 10% to 64% in a week. Goldman warned prices would exceed $100 next week absent de-escalation, calling the disruption 17× larger than the worst Russia-related supply cut. Diesel is up >50%; jet fuel topped $200/bbl in parts of the world; European gas is up nearly two-thirds.
• Administration options are limited. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) remains depleted; officials say a release is not on the table. Treasury eased sanctions on Russian oil to India. A $20B Development Finance Corporation (DFC) reinsurance scheme for Hormuz tankers drew industry skepticism—shipowners said insurance is secondary to crew safety. API’s CEO stated the only real solution is clearing the strait militarily.

Equities, Private Credit & AI

• Stocks posted their worst week since October. S&P 500 −2% w/w, Dow −3% (worst since April), Nasdaq −1.2%. VIX surged toward 30, signaling acute near-term fear. IG credit spreads widened to a three-month high. Hedge funds slashed net exposure to levels not seen since 2022.
• Private credit cracks widened. BlackRock limited withdrawals from a $26B flagship private-credit fund for the first time (−7.7% on shares). Wells Fargo flagged that bank loans to non-depository financial institutions (NDFIs) have grown from 5% to 14% of total bank loans over the past decade, with concentrations in private equity, private credit, and fund banking lines.
• AI capex signals whipsawed. Oracle/OpenAI scrapped a Texas data center expansion; Marvell bucked the trend, citing faster-than-expected demand. Block laid off 40% of employees, explicitly citing AI—giving corporate form to the labor-substitution thesis. Whether the >300,000 information-sector and ~500,000 professional-services job losses since 2022–2023 are cyclical or structural will determine the wage-growth path and the supercore trajectory Barclays flagged.

CRE Finance Market Implications

• Floating-rate relief delayed—not canceled. The rate-cut timeline has shifted from July to September at the earliest, with total 2026 easing compressed from ~60 bps to ~35–50 bps. Borrowers with near-term maturities face a tighter window.
• Energy costs hit the property stack directly. Diesel up 14–17% in a week flows into construction delivery, materials transport, and operating budgets. Asia-to-U.S. airfreight up 60% is putting pressure on building materials and FF&E. Port congestion is building across Asia, signaling bottlenecks that could persist after hostilities end. If oil stays above $90, the IMF estimates a 40-bp increase in global inflation and a 0.1–0.2% drag on growth—the stagflationary mix that simultaneously widens cap rates and compresses NOI.
• Private credit stress introduces lender-side risk. If credit stress migrates from private credit to the banks that fund it (NDFI exposure now 14% of total bank loans, up from 5% a decade ago), underwriting appetite for transitional CRE—which depends on non-bank capital—could tighten further.
• Safe-haven failure reshapes capital allocation. When stocks, bonds, gold, and traditional hedges all fall together, institutional investors rethink diversification. Whether capital flows toward CRE’s contractual cash flows or away from illiquid real assets depends on whether the market reads the shock as inflationary (favoring pricing power) or recessionary (favoring liquidity).
• Data integrity matters more as models depend on it. Delayed Census population estimates lowered household employment by 1.4 million as of December; December payrolls swung from +48,000 to −17,000 on revision; BLS model updates and agency staffing gaps degrade inputs to CRE appraisals, market studies, and credit models.

You can download CREFC's one-page MarketMetrics, which includes statistics covering the economy and the CRE debt capital markets, here.

Contact Raj Aidasani (raidasani@crefc.org) with any questions.

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Single-Family Rental Ban Update

March 10, 2026

The Senate is continuing its debate on a comprehensive housing supply bill amid mounting criticism on a provision that would force sales of new build-to-rent (BTR) properties. 

Why it matters: As we’ve previously covered, the latest Senate housing bill H.R. 6644 includes a ban on large institutional investors purchasing single family homes to rent out. 

• BTR Forced Sale: Legislative text released last week would mandate that any new BTR owned by an institutional investor would need to be sold to consumers within 7 years. 
• Institutional Investor: Large institutional investors would be defined as for-profit entities holding 350 or more single-family homes (not including exceptions in the legislation). 
• Single-Family: A single-family home is defined as “means a structure that contains 2 or fewer dwelling units that are each intended for residential occupancy by a single household” and not a manufactured home. There are no references to tax parcels in the definition.

What they’re saying: CREFC and other real estate organization have opposed the large institutional investor limitation as it would significantly expand federal regulation on housing and create unintended consequences. 

• The National Association of Homebuilders announced it would oppose the broader legislation unless and until the BTR provision was fixed, saying the bill would have a negative effect on housing supply. 
• The National Association of Realtors, however, is supporting the legislation despite the BTR provision. 
• House Republican leaders, including Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill (R-AR), have warned the bill may need changes to pass muster among the House GOP. 
• Some are calling for a conference committee to negotiate changes after Senate passage. The White House remains supportive of the legislation as drafted.

What’s next: CREFC continues to educate lawmakers on the potential impact of the BTR language and the broader SFR legislation. The House is out this week and will be pressured to act quickly should the Senate approve the legislation. 

Contact David McCarthy (dmccarthy@crefc.org) with questions. 

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CRE Securitized Debt Update

March 3, 2026

Private-Label CMBS and CRE CLOs

Two transactions totaling $1.4 billion priced last week:

1. BMARK 2026-B42, a $729.2 million conduit backed by 62 loans secured by 123 properties across 34 states. All but one loan have 10-year terms. The loan contributors are Deutsche, Citi, Goldman, NCB, Barclays, UBS, and BMO.
2. FS 2026-HULA, a $650 million SASB backed by a floating-rate, interest-only loan for BDT & MSD Partners to refinance the 249-room Four Seasons Resort Hualalai in Kailua-Kona (Big Island of Hawaii). The loan has a two-year initial term plus three one-year extension options.

By the numbers: YTD 2026 private-label CMBS and CRE CLO issuance totaled $23.2 billion, 15% lower than the $27.2 billion for same period last year.

Conduit Spreads Steady; SASB Spreads Widen

• Conduit AAA and A-S spreads were unchanged at +68 and +100, respectively.
• Conduit AA and A spreads were unchanged at +125 and +175, respectively.
• Conduit BBB- spreads were unchanged at +435.
• SASB AAA spreads moved from -1 to +25 bps, depending on property type, to a range of +100 to +165.
• CRE CLO AAA spreads were unchanged at +135/+140 (static/managed); BBB- spreads were also unchanged at +275/+285 (static/managed).

Agency CMBS

• Agency issuance totaled $3 billion last week, comprising an $1.6 billion in Freddie K and ML transactions, $1.2 billion in Fannie DUS, and $218.4 million in Ginnie transactions.
• Agency issuance for YTD 2026 totaled $31 billion, 39% higher than the $22.3 billion recorded for the same period in 2025.

Contact Raj Aidasani (raidasani@crefc.org) with any questions.

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DHS Shutdown Update

March 3, 2026

The shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) heads into its third week with few signs of actual progress on reopening the department.

• The U.S. military action against Iran has heightened domestic security concerns, which may move lawmakers toward a deal framework. 

Why it matters: The DHS funding lapse began February 14 amid Democratic pushback on Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) funding. The bill is the last remaining piece of FY 2026 government appropriations.

Democrats sent their last offer to fund the department to the White House on February 16. This offer included the following reforms to the agency as a stipulation of any funding deal:

• A mandate for body cameras,
• Judicial warrants before agents can enter private property (rather than administrative warrants,
• A ban on ICE agents wearing face masks,
• Stricter use-of-force policy, and 
• New training standards for agents.

The White House stated that many of those reforms were “non-starters” and did not respond to Democrats with an official counter offer until February 26, nearly two weeks later. 

• Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said in a statement that they are “reviewing the counter offer closely.”

This past Friday, TSA employees received only a partial paycheck. As the shutdown of the agency heads into its third week, it’s unclear what, if anything, will incentivize lawmakers to come together and work on a solution.

Shutdown Effects: While services such as TSA and FEMA remain active, staff are still unpaid. To the good, ICE received significant funding from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that it can tap to continue operations.

• Global Entry suspended: DHS announced that the Global Entry program, which expedites customs processing for pre-approved travelers, is halted for the duration of the shutdown.
• TSA PreCheck was initially paused, then restored. An earlier decision to suspend TSA PreCheck was reversed after pushback from industry and lawmakers, and the program remains operational, though DHS says it may adjust operations based on staffing constraints.
• Travel disruptions and staffing strain: Reports show that, despite official program continuations, some airports have temporarily shifted travelers from PreCheck to standard screening lanes due to resource limitations, compounding potential delays.
• Broader DHS impacts: The shutdown has also affected other areas of the department, including restrictions on FEMA travel and non-disaster response activities under current funding limitations.
  

Contact James Montfort (jmontfort@crefc.org) with any questions.

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Shape the Future of CREFC: Call for Forum Chair-Elect Nominations

March 3, 2026 

A vital part of the CRE Finance Council’s mission is driven by our Forums—specialized peer groups that serve as the engines of industry progress. Beyond providing a platform for discussing sector-specific trends and regulatory shifts, these groups are instrumental in tackling systemic issues and driving tangible change in how the industry operates, including the development and widespread adoption of market-leading best practices.

To ensure these groups continue to lead the industry conversation and catalyze meaningful change, we are officially opening nominations for our next class of Forum Chair-Elects.

This is a unique opportunity for members to take a leadership role within the Council, helping to curate programming and advocate for the interests of their specific market segment.

About the Forums

Our Forums are divided by constituency and asset focus to ensure relevant, high-level engagement across the CRE Finance industry. We are currently seeking leadership for the following groups:

• Alternative Lenders and High Yield Investors
• B-Piece Investors 
• GSE/Multifamily Lenders
• Investment-Grade (IG) Bondholders
• Issuers
• Portfolio Lenders – Bank & Insurance Company
• Servicers – Master and Special

Nominee Requirements

To maintain the high caliber of leadership our members expect, we invite nominations for individuals who meet the following criteria:

• Member Alignment: Nominees must be current employees of a CREFC member firm.
• Sector Expertise: Candidates should demonstrate significant professional experience and a proven track record within the specific Forum’s sector.
• Commitment to the Industry: A desire to contribute to the collective voice of the CRE finance community and a willingness to collaborate with fellow industry leaders.

Submit Your Nomination

Whether you are interested in stepping into a leadership role yourself or would like to recommend a colleague who has demonstrated exceptional insight and dedication to the industry, we want to hear from you.

The nomination process is straightforward and can be completed via the link below: SUBMIT A NOMINATION 

For a detailed breakdown of each Forum’s mission and current activities, please visit our Forums Overview page.

Join us in steering the future of CRE finance—nominate a leader today.

Contact Rohit Narayanan (RNarayanan@crefc.org) with any questions.

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Senate Tees Up Housing Bill 

March 3, 2026

The Senate voted 84-6 to begin considering the housing supply bill H.R. 6644, which includes the large institutional investor SFR ban language. 

• The updated legislative text combines elements of previous House and Senate housing bills. 
• The updated draft was released shortly before senators voted on the clotures motion. The vote sets up debate, but the bill can change before final passage. 
• Click here for a section-by-section summary of the new bill.

Why it matters: The House and Senate have each passed their own bill that would aim to boost housing supply. The bill attempts to streamline certain federal regulatory requirements and incentivize local pro-supply land use policies. 

• Yes, but: The bill also includes a nationwide purchase ban on SFR, which would impose a significant regulatory burden on institutional capital supporting housing. See story above. 

The big picture: Senate floor action is the latest development in the dueling nature between the chambers on housing legislation. Here is a recap on the developments over the past year: 

• July 2025: Senate Banking unanimously passes S. 2651 the ROAD to Housing Act. 
• October 2025: Full Senate amends the must-pass National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) to include ROAD and passes the bill. 
• December 2025: House Financial Services Committee leaders reject the housing provisions in the NDAA, which did not include House input. The committee advances H.R. 6644, the Housing for the 21st Century Act (Housing 21) on a vote of 50-1. 
• February 2026: The full House passes H.R. 6644 by a 390-9 vote and sends it to the Senate. Several bipartisan community banking regulatory tailoring bills were included in the final version of the House-passed bill. 
• March 2026: The Senate is using H.R. 6644 as a vehicle for floor consideration, which means they intend to strip out the House language and insert their own mix of legislation into the final bill.

What’s next: The way forward remains murky and largely depends upon cross-chamber negotiations. 

• Senate Banking Committee Ranking Member Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) has said she will oppose any changes to the ROAD bill, including the House community bank legislation. 
• House Republican leaders have alluded to problems with certain Democratic provisions in the Senate ROAD bill.
• The White House has said that any housing legislation must include the administration’s SFR ban. Prior to the Senate vote, the White House released a Statement of Administrative Position that confirmed the President would sign the present bill. 

The bottom line: The Senate does not want to take up the bill with changes from the House once it passes, which means the House will likely be pressured to accept whatever text the Senate ultimately passes. 

Contact David McCarthy (dmccarthy@crefc.org) with questions.

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