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Midterm Outlook

March 10, 2026 

The midterm election outlook is shifting rapidly with retirements, updated congressional maps, and primary losses.

House of Representatives: These retirement announcements have come as President Donald Trump and Republican leadership try to preserve a narrow House majority.

• To date, 56 US House members are retiring instead of running for their current seat. 
• 35 Republicans have announced their retirement, compared to 21 Democrats. In recent years, more members of the party in power have headed for the exits.
• This list includes those who lost their primary election, or are running for higher office which include the Senate, Governorship, and offices of Attorney General and County Judge.
• The president’s party usually loses congressional seats in midterm elections.

Recent Notable Retirements

• Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA-48) announced last week that he will be retiring due to the redrawn maps in California. His seat became a genuine toss-up after California redrew its districts. Kamala Harris would have won the new district over Donald Trump by three points in 2024. It previously was a safe Republican seat.
• Rep. Burgess Owens (R-UT-4) also announced last week that he will be retiring. 
  • Utah’s congressional map has gone through many different versions for this election year due to a battle at the state level between Republicans and Democrats. 
  • A judge recently declared that it was too late to change the map, leaving a safe Democratic seat in the Salt Lake City area. 
  • Owens decided to retire instead of running in this new Democratic leaning seat or run in a nearby district against another member of Congress in the primary. 
• Rep. Tony Gonzalez (R-TX-23) announced he will no longer run for re-election. 
  • Gonzalez was serving his third term, but following a 2026 primary runoff challenge and a House Ethics Committee investigation into an affair with a former staffer, he dropped his re-election bid last week. 
  • Without Gonzalez in the race, Brandon Herrera will likely be the GOP’s nominee, giving Democrats a shot at flipping this traditionally safe red district.

Texas Senate Race

• On the Democratic side, State Senator James Talarico won the nomination to be his party’s nominee, beating Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett (D-TX-30) by a margin of 52-48%, avoiding a runoff. 
• While the Republican side is a bit more messy, incumbent Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) has been forced into a runoff election with current Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. 
• Cornyn garnered 42% of the vote, while Paxton was just shy of 41%. As neither candidate breached the 50% mark, there will be a runoff election on May 26. President Trump has been publicly musing about endorsing a candidate prior to the runoff.

Why it matters: The messy primary on the Republican side forces the candidates to spend time and money attacking each other over the next two months instead of focusing on the general election. 

Democrats have dubbed this the dream scenario for their general election prospects. A perfect storm of negative approval ratings on President Trump and competitive elections in stronghold GOP states could give Democrats a slim but real chance at controlling both chambers of Congress next year.

• Talarico has been widely viewed as Democrats best chance to take the seat, and infighting on the GOP side only helps them make their case. 
• Putting Texas in play forces national Republicans to spend more money protecting their eventual nominee this fall.

Montana Senate Race 

• Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) announced his surprise decision to retire last week just hours before the filing deadline was about to pass. 
• He quickly endorsed U.S. Attorney for the District of Montana Kurt Alme, who filed to run for Daines’ Senate seat as a Republican just minutes before the deadline closed on Tuesday evening. 
• This move raised eyebrows across Capitol Hill as Sen. Daines in effect froze the primary field for his handpicked successor. 
• Another member of Congress, Rep. Marie Glusenkamp-Perez (D-WA-3) publicly stated her frustration with the move following his retirement announcement.

One of the reasons Daines cited for his retirement announcement was the desire to avoid an expensive race by keeping big Democratic names out of the mix including former Democratic Senator Tester and former Democratic Governors Brian Schweitzer and Steve Bullock. 

“A second midterm for a president, you have natural political headwinds. And my goal here was to try to make this race as least expensive as possible, given there’s a lot of expensive races on the map,” Daines said in an interview. “This was all about preventing this race from escalating into another $200-300 million race.” 

Source: Semafor

Why it matters: The general election this fall in Montana is not expected to be competitive as the state has trended more red, with current Senator Tim Sheehy (R-MT) winning his election by seven percentage points in 2024. 

Contact James Montfort (jmontfort@crefc.org) with any questions.

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Capital Markets Update Week of 3/4

March 4, 2025

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) shutdown is nearing the one month mark with little progress made on re-opening the department.

Why it matters: The DHS funding lapse began February 14 amid Democratic pushback on Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) funding. The bill is the last remaining piece of FY 2026 government appropriations.

On Sunday, Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) stated that he would like to fund some parts of DHS, but not all.

"Let’s just pass those funding bills. Let’s confine the ICE and CBP reform discussion just to those two agencies and fund the others. Thus far, Republicans have blocked those efforts. We want to fund TSA, FEMA, Coast Guard and CISA,” Kaine said during an appearance on CBS’s “Face the Nation.”

Source: The Hill

Yes, but: The partial funding of the department is likely to be a non-starter. A funding bill of this nature failed in the Senate just last week.

Over the past three weeks, Democratic leadership and the White House have traded reform demands back and forth but have yet to find a compromise. It remains to be seen if a deal to fund everything excluding ICE and CBP is a viable path forward.

• Amid the shutdown of the Department, the Secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem was fired by President Trump on March 5. 
• The final straw was reportedly the spending of $220 million on an ad campaign that prominently featured Sec. Noem. 
• Noem, stated in her testimony to the Senate Judiciary Committee that this ad campaign was approved by President Trump himself. Following her testimony, Trump denied approving the campaign and announced shortly thereafter that Noem would no longer lead the department.
• Trump then announced that Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) will take over the department effective March 31. A change in leadership could help bolster the agencies credibility, but a deal on funding the department still seems distant.

The bottom line: Essential DHS employees continue working without pay, while key programs are seeing disruption. We will continue to track developments and share updates.

Contact James Montfort (jmontfort@crefc.org) with any questions.

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CREFC Meets with SEC Regarding Its ABS Concept Release

March 10, 2026

Last week, a group of CREFC staff and members met with the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) Office of Structured Finance (OSF) to discuss our response to the SEC’s Concept Release on Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Disclosures and Enhancements to Asset-Backed Securities Registration.

We noted that securitization remains critical to liquidity and borrower access to capital, but that registered CMBS issuance has declined sharply over the past decade, from 65% of private-label market (2014) to 29% (2024).

Our members shared that regulatory costs and duplicative requirements discourage registration and that we support reforms that lower costs while preserving investor protection:

• Reduce unnecessary or duplicative regulatory burdens;
• Preserve timely, accurate, and decision-useful investor disclosures; and
• Align regulation with how CMBS markets function in practice.

Our specific recommendations focused largely on reporting and disclosure requirements applicable to registered conduit CMBS:

• Restore automatic suspension of Section 15(d) reporting obligations for registered CMBS held of record by less than three hundred persons.
• Change the cadence of significant obligor financial disclosures to reduce undue reporting burden.
• Conform the reporting requirements on Schedule AL to existing disclosure requirements in Item 1111.

We also suggested:

• Reducing the waiting period under Rule 15Ga-2 relating to the filing of third-party due diligence reports prior to pricing.
• Revising Rule 17g-5 to remove the requirement that information provided to an NRSRO rating an Exchange Act ABS be posted to a website. (On November 12, we submitted to the SEC a 17g-5 Petition for Rulemaking.) 

CREFC appreciated the opportunity to engage with the SEC’s OSF on its work to rationalize the ABS regulatory framework and better align it with today’s markets. 

• We look forward to providing more information in response to the OSF’s questions and responding to the forthcoming SEC proposal that will reflect the comments received on its Concept Release.

Contact Sairah Burki (sburki@crefc.org) with questions. 

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Single-Family Rental Ban Update

March 10, 2026

The Senate is continuing its debate on a comprehensive housing supply bill amid mounting criticism on a provision that would force sales of new build-to-rent (BTR) properties. 

Why it matters: As we’ve previously covered, the latest Senate housing bill H.R. 6644 includes a ban on large institutional investors purchasing single family homes to rent out. 

• BTR Forced Sale: Legislative text released last week would mandate that any new BTR owned by an institutional investor would need to be sold to consumers within 7 years. 
• Institutional Investor: Large institutional investors would be defined as for-profit entities holding 350 or more single-family homes (not including exceptions in the legislation). 
• Single-Family: A single-family home is defined as “means a structure that contains 2 or fewer dwelling units that are each intended for residential occupancy by a single household” and not a manufactured home. There are no references to tax parcels in the definition.

What they’re saying: CREFC and other real estate organization have opposed the large institutional investor limitation as it would significantly expand federal regulation on housing and create unintended consequences. 

• The National Association of Homebuilders announced it would oppose the broader legislation unless and until the BTR provision was fixed, saying the bill would have a negative effect on housing supply. 
• The National Association of Realtors, however, is supporting the legislation despite the BTR provision. 
• House Republican leaders, including Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill (R-AR), have warned the bill may need changes to pass muster among the House GOP. 
• Some are calling for a conference committee to negotiate changes after Senate passage. The White House remains supportive of the legislation as drafted.

What’s next: CREFC continues to educate lawmakers on the potential impact of the BTR language and the broader SFR legislation. The House is out this week and will be pressured to act quickly should the Senate approve the legislation. 

Contact David McCarthy (dmccarthy@crefc.org) with questions. 

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DHS Shutdown Update

March 3, 2026

The shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) heads into its third week with few signs of actual progress on reopening the department.

• The U.S. military action against Iran has heightened domestic security concerns, which may move lawmakers toward a deal framework. 

Why it matters: The DHS funding lapse began February 14 amid Democratic pushback on Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) funding. The bill is the last remaining piece of FY 2026 government appropriations.

Democrats sent their last offer to fund the department to the White House on February 16. This offer included the following reforms to the agency as a stipulation of any funding deal:

• A mandate for body cameras,
• Judicial warrants before agents can enter private property (rather than administrative warrants,
• A ban on ICE agents wearing face masks,
• Stricter use-of-force policy, and 
• New training standards for agents.

The White House stated that many of those reforms were “non-starters” and did not respond to Democrats with an official counter offer until February 26, nearly two weeks later. 

• Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said in a statement that they are “reviewing the counter offer closely.”

This past Friday, TSA employees received only a partial paycheck. As the shutdown of the agency heads into its third week, it’s unclear what, if anything, will incentivize lawmakers to come together and work on a solution.

Shutdown Effects: While services such as TSA and FEMA remain active, staff are still unpaid. To the good, ICE received significant funding from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that it can tap to continue operations.

• Global Entry suspended: DHS announced that the Global Entry program, which expedites customs processing for pre-approved travelers, is halted for the duration of the shutdown.
• TSA PreCheck was initially paused, then restored. An earlier decision to suspend TSA PreCheck was reversed after pushback from industry and lawmakers, and the program remains operational, though DHS says it may adjust operations based on staffing constraints.
• Travel disruptions and staffing strain: Reports show that, despite official program continuations, some airports have temporarily shifted travelers from PreCheck to standard screening lanes due to resource limitations, compounding potential delays.
• Broader DHS impacts: The shutdown has also affected other areas of the department, including restrictions on FEMA travel and non-disaster response activities under current funding limitations.
  

Contact James Montfort (jmontfort@crefc.org) with any questions.

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Shape the Future of CREFC: Call for Forum Chair-Elect Nominations

March 3, 2026 

A vital part of the CRE Finance Council’s mission is driven by our Forums—specialized peer groups that serve as the engines of industry progress. Beyond providing a platform for discussing sector-specific trends and regulatory shifts, these groups are instrumental in tackling systemic issues and driving tangible change in how the industry operates, including the development and widespread adoption of market-leading best practices.

To ensure these groups continue to lead the industry conversation and catalyze meaningful change, we are officially opening nominations for our next class of Forum Chair-Elects.

This is a unique opportunity for members to take a leadership role within the Council, helping to curate programming and advocate for the interests of their specific market segment.

About the Forums

Our Forums are divided by constituency and asset focus to ensure relevant, high-level engagement across the CRE Finance industry. We are currently seeking leadership for the following groups:

• Alternative Lenders and High Yield Investors
• B-Piece Investors 
• GSE/Multifamily Lenders
• Investment-Grade (IG) Bondholders
• Issuers
• Portfolio Lenders – Bank & Insurance Company
• Servicers – Master and Special

Nominee Requirements

To maintain the high caliber of leadership our members expect, we invite nominations for individuals who meet the following criteria:

• Member Alignment: Nominees must be current employees of a CREFC member firm.
• Sector Expertise: Candidates should demonstrate significant professional experience and a proven track record within the specific Forum’s sector.
• Commitment to the Industry: A desire to contribute to the collective voice of the CRE finance community and a willingness to collaborate with fellow industry leaders.

Submit Your Nomination

Whether you are interested in stepping into a leadership role yourself or would like to recommend a colleague who has demonstrated exceptional insight and dedication to the industry, we want to hear from you.

The nomination process is straightforward and can be completed via the link below: SUBMIT A NOMINATION 

For a detailed breakdown of each Forum’s mission and current activities, please visit our Forums Overview page.

Join us in steering the future of CRE finance—nominate a leader today.

Contact Rohit Narayanan (RNarayanan@crefc.org) with any questions.

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